For the development prospects of Mango Network Token (MANGO) in 2024, a prudent judgment needs to be made by comprehensively considering multiple factors such as the macroeconomy, the evolution of blockchain technology, specific ecological expansion plans, and the regulatory environment. The global macroeconomic trend remains a key variable. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) prediction in October 2023, the global economic growth rate in 2024 is expected to be approximately 2.9%. If the persistently low growth rate or even the risk of recession detracts from investors’ risk appetite, it may significantly curb the growth ceiling of the entire crypto market, including tokens. Historical experience is worth learning from. During the crypto bear market in 2022, the market value of a large number of tokens dropped by more than 80%, clearly demonstrating the market vulnerability under systemic risks. Therefore, for MANGO, its performance in 2024 will inevitably be highly correlated with the overall market volatility. It is expected that its price fluctuation in a bull market could be as high as 300%, and the pullback in a bear market could exceed 60%, demonstrating a significant beta coefficient characteristic.
Technological iteration and ecological implementation are the core supports of MANGO’s value. The project party clearly plans to complete the key upgrade of the mainnet by the second quarter of 2024. It is expected that by implementing sharding technology, the network transaction processing speed (TPS) will be increased from the current approximately 1,000 transactions per second to over 5,000 transactions per second, and the average transaction confirmation time will be reduced to less than 2 seconds. The target of the transaction Fee (Gas Fee) is controlled below 0.001 US dollars. If these performance parameters can be fulfilled, it will give it a significant technical advantage among numerous Layer1 competitors. The ecological construction aspect is particularly crucial. The team has committed to investing at least 40 million US dollars in an ecological fund, with the goal of introducing over 100 new decentralized applications (Dapps) by the end of 2024. Especially in areas with strong value capture capabilities such as decentralized finance (DeFi), GameFi, and real-world asset tokenization (RWA), breakthroughs should be sought. Referring to the case of the Ethereum ecosystem’s TVL growth reaching tens of times during DeFi Summer, if MANGO can successfully attract multiple killer applications with the potential to attract millions of users to settle in, its total on-chain locked value (TVL) is expected to soar from the current approximately 180 million US dollars to a scale of 2 billion US dollars by the end of 2024. Drive the structural growth of token demand.
Meanwhile, the dynamics of market supply and demand and the regulatory environment pose significant challenges. According to the token economics model, approximately 500 million MANGO (about 12% of the circulating shares) will enter the market circulation in 2024 as per the pre-determined release plan. Based on the current market capitalization of 300 million US dollars in circulation, this additional supply is equivalent to a potential selling pressure of over 35 million US dollars (calculated at a unit price of 0.7 US dollars). If the new funds flowing into the market cannot be absorbed simultaneously, it may pose a sustained downward resistance to the price. A market digestion cycle of about 2 to 3 months is a reasonable expectation. Regulation is another sword hanging over the head. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been continuously filing lawsuits against several major exchanges and token issuers (such as the recent cases against Coinbase and Binance). If its strict stance on cryptocurrencies does not change substantially in 2024, it will seriously affect the compliant allocation of MANGO by large institutional capital. It may lead to a 40% contraction in its average daily trading volume from the current 15 million US dollars. Some cautious Wall Street institutions have set the upper limit of the proportion of cryptocurrencies allocated to their alternative assets within 5% of the total value of their investment portfolios, reflecting their compliance risk considerations. Therefore, any rational mango network token price prediction must explicitly incorporate stress tests under scenarios of negative regulatory shocks, such as assuming the potential risk of a 30%-50% evaporation of its short-term market value due to regulatory upgrades.
In conclusion, $MANGO shows great potential in 2024 but is accompanied by significant uncertainties. If its technological upgrade commitment can be fully implemented and attract key ecosystem applications (especially DeFi protocols or game Dapps with daily active users (DAU) exceeding 500,000), combined with the overall growth of the crypto market (assuming the market value rebounds to 2 trillion US dollars), the token price may challenge the range of 1.5 to 2.5 US dollars. Corresponding to an annualized growth space of 150% to 300%, it becomes a leading Layer1 project in terms of performance. However, the probability of realizing this optimistic scenario may be less than 50%. If factors such as technical delay risks (mainnet upgrades or delays of at least three months), the utilization rate of ecological funds being lower than expected (such as less than 30 successful projects actually incubated), regulatory black swan events (such as a major jurisdiction announcing a ban), or the continuous sluggishness of the overall market (Bitcoin prices remaining below $30,000 throughout the year) are combined, Its price may continue to be under pressure within the range of 0.4 to 0.8 US dollars or even lower. Investors need to closely track quarterly milestones (such as the mainnet upgrade schedule in Q1 and the developer incentive progress report in Q2) and on-chain core indicators (TVL growth rate maintained at an average of over 10% per month and the number of active addresses exceeded 100,000 per day), and allocate at least 30% of the total position as risk buffer capital to deal with extreme market fluctuations.